Bernie Takes Iowa
Why Bernie can win Iowa.
We’ve been doing math. It tells us that if the Democratic caucus voting on February 1st reflects current aggregate Iowa polling numbers (Hillary 45%, Bernie 43%), and if turnout is average, Clinton will win by 3,906 votes.
That means for Bernie to win, he only needs the caucus participation of 3,907 of his supporters who hadn’t been planning to vote that day, believers who will participate on the condition that it will probably make a decisive difference.
3,907 people is not a lot of people in a state that has more than 500,000 registered democrats (and 700,000 registered unaffiliated voters).
If you think Bernie Sanders stands for something different, genuine and important in this age of bought politics, but aren’t sure he can actually win, this tool is for you.
If you care about the world but have never felt like your lone vote makes a difference, this tool is for you.
If you believe that the presidency is bigger than one person and that no candidate—no matter how honest, good-hearted, smart, charismatic, genuine, or passionate—can save our democracy alone without a massive people-powered movement to push and protect him or her, this tool is for you.
Are you willing to volunteer some of your time for what you believe in if it seems like it might work, but not ready to volunteer for a lost cause?
This tool was made for you.
How Bernie Takes Iowa on Take2 works:
- You pledge to one of the featured actions.
- We all try to gather enough pledges to reach the threshold by the deadline.
- If we reach the threshold, we prompt you to follow through on your pledge.
- You act, and, if our calculations are correct, we win.
Pledge some time right now and show our collective power to create true democracy.
Why it matters if Bernie wins Iowa.
The media and pundits have dismissed the Sanders campaign. Even though (or, because) he’s a champion for policies that the vast majority of Americans support, he’s called radical and fringe. He’s not given comparable airtime to other candidates, and the Democratic establishment further marginalizes him by limiting the number of debates and broadcasting them at odd hours when fewer people are watching.
Despite these odds, he has more volunteers than any campaign, he’s rising in the polls and has received more individual contributions than anyone ever at this point in the Democratic primary (2.5 million). If Bernie wins Iowa, it gets real. Suddenly, his candidacy must be taken seriously, and that means more air time. And, the more people learn about him and his ideas, the more they support him.
- If Sanders wins Iowa, All Hell Breaks Loose, Daily Kos
- Iowa may now be everything for Bernie Sanders, Washington Post
- Bernie Phonebanking 101, Sanders for President Reddit
- In blockbuster poll, Sanders destroys Trump by 13 points, The Hill
- Hillary’s in trouble: How Bernie’s gaining ground and eroding Clinton’s aura of inevitability, Salon
- Election math, the Take2 team
Please note that the threshold is subject to change if new polling information suggests it should.